THE IMPACT OF REGIONAL CONFLICTS ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE TEXTILE INDUSTRY AND THE AGRO-INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX OF KAZAKHSTAN

Abstract

This study analyzes the cascading effects of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on Kazakhstan's textile industry and agribusiness (AIC) using a geographic input-output (GIO) model. In the context of geopolitical instability and sanctions pressure, Kazakhstan has become vulnerable due to its close economic ties with Russia and Ukraine, which has affected key sectors of the national economy. The study covers the period from 1990 to 2023 and draws on data on production, foreign trade, macroeconomic indicators, and energy consumption. The GIO model allowed us to quantify the interdependencies between the textile industry, AIC, and energy, identifying the impact of changes in trade flows, the cost of imported raw materials, and transportation costs on production and employment in these sectors. The results show that the most significant changes have occurred in the AIC, with the textile sector being particularly vulnerable to rising raw material costs and changes in logistics routes. The study emphasizes the need to diversify Kazakhstan's foreign economic relations and develop adaptation strategies to increase the resilience of these sectors to external shocks. The data obtained can serve as a basis for the development of economic policies aimed at reducing dependence on traditional markets and strengthening the internal stability of the national economy.